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Prediction for CME (2022-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-22T07:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21702/-1
CME Note: Seen in the west of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source location is unclear but may be a faint eruption with dimming seen around N10W05 in the proximity of AR 1309. STEREO A EUVI imagery was unavailable due to a data gap.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-26T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21704/1
Model Inputs:
2022-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=317.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2022-09-22T20:14Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-09-26T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-09-27T18:00Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-09-26T12:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-09-26T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220922_201400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 87.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2022-09-22T16:38Z

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